Friday, July 25, 2008

50:50 - Its not only a good idea - Its the law!

Sometimes I go stark raving mad, I make a realization based on rationalizations that seem good to start with but then go sorta muttles towards the end. Today I stumbled upon an idea and I can't quite grasp it well enough to do anything more with it.

Do you wish to go down the rabbit hole?

Today I was toying with a friend. I was offering to her the philosophical quandary I'm about to introduce some of you too. I love to make people exercise their brains. Some of you may have already heard of this, but I don't have a clear cut place to jump you to so just bear with it.
When you flip a penny 1000 times - ideally how often does it land on heads? The answer to this is simple: 500. 6th graders could easily answer that one. But now I ask you the one question they never asked me when I was in grade school why? Why does the penny land on either face 50% of the time? Many people will suggest "well see it has 2 faces so it must land on one or the other, it only has 2 choices." - some nay sayers will go so far to say it could land on an edge(if you are this guy, please leave now - yes you Scott) Landing on an edge is possible but rare enough it won't screw with my "lesson".

The real question I asked was why does it land at an equally distributed 50:50 - why not 60:40 or 70:30 - its true these distributions can happen. But with experimental evidence we see that the distribution approaches 50:50. This is a universal law. This is a property of the universe just as inexplicable as gravity is (we still don't truly understand it completely)
I feel I should define how and why it 'approaches'. By experiment if you flip a coin 10 times the distribution could be 40:60, and you flip it 100 times and the distribution is likely to get closer - say 45:55 and when you flip it 100000 times its likely to be 49.999:50.001 - but the point I need to make is that the more you flip the less the errors that are inherent in the penny and our experiment show up. Knowing this we can assume that the universe is wired to be at a perfect 50:50*

This means that at the most basic of levels, the universe must make perfect decisions as to 50:50 - but there is another problem with that.
Here is where I turn the the problem on its head. (pun intended)
What I suggest is that the penny experiment is in a closed system, the cumulative effect of this system is to equally distribute the choice of flips to 50:50 - but lets analyze this system more closely.

Lets scale this down. If we have a perfect universe devoid of everything, heck lets just isolate one piece of this universe. We only have one "minuscule universe constructor" or (MUCk) - we pose a number of choices to the MUCk and after 1000 choices we see it truly observes the 50:50 rule - well, this is really odd, what happens when we reduce it to 100 choices? Oh thats predictable we got 50 even, 50 odd - what about 10? Amazingly it came back with 5:5 .. well wait .. what about 2 choices - presenting the device with only 2 choices - we get 1:1 - a perfect 50:50 **

So wait, how did that work, I ran the test 10 times and got 0,0,0,1,0,1,0,1,1,1 - in that order, but when I ran it with 6 choices I got 1,1,1,0,0,0 - a perfect distribution. But I have an issue with this. I ran the test 10 times and it came out with 3 zeros to start with, let me do this again. No matter how many time I run the test - each time I run it the distribution is 50:50 OVER TIME .. yes thats right you heard me I'm suggesting that the universe knows the number of tests you will perform BEFORE you do them. You ran the test OVER time, a MUCk has no definable spacial size. Each test can be collected as fast as you want but you can ONLY run one test at a time. There are only two ways this can work each test result alters the future test results, or the universe knows the number of results you are going to ask for before the test is over with, or has even begun.

So lets scale this up. - yes I mean up, I mean BIG - immagine all of that MUCk filling up a volume of space. We call this MUCk the universe, the universe as a whole, as we discussed, is wired for this magical 50:50. All the choices made within the universe over time must be 50:50 - This suggests to me that the universe has a fixed number of possible choices over time and the results of those choices are equally distributed 50:50. The other possibility is the result of one test alters the results of the next - Either way this is predeterminism at the quantum level. I've yet had anyone describe any conditions that imply predeterminism at the quantum level? It appears random to us, but in the grand scheme of things is it truly determined?

So since I know I can't answer this, nor do I have the brain to qualify the idea any more, I beg of anyone who reads this to forward a link to their friend who may know of a physics or philosopher teachers or both (equally distributed of course!)

Or if you know what I'm missing, please pass me along to some information, this is good stuff. I'd love to get a good discourse explaining why I'm wrong, or that someone else has stumbled into this rabbit hole.

* Can I make this assumption - best I can tell 50:50 is the only provable distribution, other distributions fall off the bell curve in predictability? .. right?

**now I know that in our version of the game we can present it with 1 choice and possibly zero choices - and with 1 choice the distribution is 1:0 or 100% .. but 100% is still as close as it can get to 50% - and I'd like to not confuse the issue - so lets ignore that for now. - My honest feeling is that since the universe most likely cannot contain only one MUCk - and its unlikely only one choice can be made it might as well be greater than 0 and probably 1 and more than likely .. well you get the idea.

P.S. If this has been reiterated before, and I'm only just stumbling about the concept please point me into some documents that can help see more of what others saw with this as well.

Welcome to the bottom of the hole, I know things are different from this perspective but the stars look oh so welcoming now, don't they?

2 comments:

Prozac said...

So if I have 500 shit days, working with your system, there is the suggestion that I may at some point start having some good ones to even things up?

Prozacgod said...

Unfortunately no, simply put life is a macroscopic system - emerging from the lower system - you're life has a beginning and an ending within the system - In other words you only get to perceive part of it. That part may appear good, bad or indifferent.

The difference between life and the "game" I wrote about was - you got to control the number of choices the little universe made - which alters its system - our lives are more like looking at my result set of 10 - imagine a life only lasts for 3 decisions in that system - that means if you were born at index 0 - you have 3 zeros to live through - likely a shit life - if you are born in the middle you get somthing like 0,1,0 or 1,0,1 - and you have shity to mediocre life - and towards the end there - you get three perfect 1's - I envy that Mofo...